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Showing posts from April, 2020

Decision making in times of crisis ...

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Decision making in times of crisis ... W hen “Multi–Stakeholder Decision Making for Complex Problems” was published about 3 years ago, I could not have imagined a more relevant time for its messages than now. During emergencies, decision making tends to be hurried, with a focus on the immediate. This is apt – as one must put out the fire first before thinking about its consequences, and how to prevent the next fire. But what if the crisis affects multitudes and critical decisions must be made by many. Do the decision makers understand the big picture - grasp the full range of the variables at play and their complex, non-linear interactions? What if decisions made during crises – as they often do – produce long–term unintended consequences – some of which counterproductive? What about the timing of decisions – do information delays and decision lags matter? The current corona pandemic is the perfect storm for these scenarios. Critical decisions are made by leader

Is Corona Pandemic a Boiling Frog Syndrome?

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For too long humans have been struggling with poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, conflicts and oppression of all kinds: race, class, gender, religion – to name a few. Why, now all of a sudden, the whole world is pouring attention on corona pandemic? What is the difference, then, between the corona crisis and the other ones?   The answer is rather obvious – urgency.   Which reminds me of the boiling frog syndrome:   If you put a frog in boiling water, it quickly jumps out and saves itself. If you place the same frog in normal water and slowly raise the temperature, the frog body will adjust to the rising heat – it becomes numb and will remain there until it dies! The difference is panic reaction vs gradual decay. Humanity’s other crises have been evolving slowly, albeit steadily, over decades and centuries. Plus, they have not threatened everyone equally – albeit, they have helped to create huge chasms of the haves and have nots around the planet. The curren

Can the Corona Crisis Change the World - Forever?

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Amidst the global uncertainty, fear and turmoil that the Corona pandemic has brought to the world, it is difficult to discern any long-term positives from this crisis.   No doubt, the systemic effects of the pandemic, be it loss of lives, economic downturns, financial hardships, or psychological stresses will be felt by all for a long time to come.   Yet, history has abundant examples of resilient societies emerging out of crises ­ – stronger and more progressive. The Black Death of the 14 th century – one of the most destructive pandemics in human history – decimated about one third of Europe’s population. Yet its social, political, economic, and religious consequences changed the course of history. The 15 th century Europe became a “golden age”, bringing an end to serfdom, questioning religious traditions and dogmas, and paving the way for scientific discoveries and social and economic opportunities for masses.   The American Civil War, while devastating, it forged th