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Decision making in times of crisis ...

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Decision making in times of crisis ... W hen “Multi–Stakeholder Decision Making for Complex Problems” was published about 3 years ago, I could not have imagined a more relevant time for its messages than now. During emergencies, decision making tends to be hurried, with a focus on the immediate. This is apt – as one must put out the fire first before thinking about its consequences, and how to prevent the next fire. But what if the crisis affects multitudes and critical decisions must be made by many. Do the decision makers understand the big picture - grasp the full range of the variables at play and their complex, non-linear interactions? What if decisions made during crises – as they often do – produce long–term unintended consequences – some of which counterproductive? What about the timing of decisions – do information delays and decision lags matter? The current corona pandemic is the perfect storm for these scenarios. Critical decisions are made by leader...
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Why Do Smart Managers Make Bad Decisions?

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  What do racial injustice, pandemics, financial crises, globalisation, poverty, stock market, climate change, traffic, movement of billiard balls, swarming of birds, and your diet have in common?     Complexity .   Complexity lies beneath all natural, physical and human systems – as in ecology, biology, business, and economy. According to Peter Senge, complexity occurs where cause and effect are not close in time and space – like the lag time between a seed and a grown tree, injustice and revolt, eating and gaining weight. Unlike ‘complicated’, complexity is unpredictable (a car is complicated, traffic is complex) – as complexity arises from dynamic interactions of numerous variables encompassing, social, political, cultural, historical, and psychological domains. Biologist Lewis Thomas, observed “You cannot meddle with one part of a complex system from the outside without the almost certain risk of setting off disastrous events in other, remote parts. I...
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Is Corona Pandemic a Boiling Frog Syndrome?

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For too long humans have been struggling with poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, conflicts and oppression of all kinds: race, class, gender, religion – to name a few. Why, now all of a sudden, the whole world is pouring attention on corona pandemic? What is the difference, then, between the corona crisis and the other ones?   The answer is rather obvious – urgency.   Which reminds me of the boiling frog syndrome:   If you put a frog in boiling water, it quickly jumps out and saves itself. If you place the same frog in normal water and slowly raise the temperature, the frog body will adjust to the rising heat – it becomes numb and will remain there until it dies! The difference is panic reaction vs gradual decay. Humanity’s other crises have been evolving slowly, albeit steadily, over decades and centuries. Plus, they have not threatened everyone equally – albeit, they have helped to create huge chasms of the haves and have nots around the planet. ...
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